Linux Torvalds didn’t exactly expect Linux to do what it did. Moreover, he didn’t exactly want to deal with all of the business issues that came about because of its success. He mentions in his book that “I had no interest getting involved in this.” At least at face value, Linus didn’t get into Linux to be a business mogul, and he loathed many of the things involved as a result of its success. That’s what makes his success so confusing, and perhaps more respectable as a result. If we assume that Linus hasn’t been putting on an “unassuming business-naïve nerdboy” façade for all these years, hiding his true capitalist mindset while conspiring to become a millionaire just below the surface, but I think that’s doubtful. More likely, he is just like that.
I have to think that Linux’s success is a kind of one-in-a-million fluke that is doubtful to happen again. The issues with its repetition are two-fold. First, with all the money in the technology industry these days, it seems much more likely that an industry disruptor will be funneled through the moneyed channels rather than one that is open-source. Second, I don’t see many holes existing in the technology world these days that there was back then with the lack of an open-source kernel. Operating systems are the basis of most user-friendly technology, so they’re remarkably important. What else could be made that carries such necessity in the live of tech users?
I think there will always be successes in the open-source field, because there are countless places where the paid software market comes up short. There are new small things being worked on daily that we saw presented for Project03. None of these projects are remarkably important in the lives of many (save Firefox, perhaps, but even then, most people use Chrome). However, mentioning Chrome brings up an interesting point, since Chrome was built on WebKit, which is open-source.
With this said, there seems to be two possible ways in which open-source applications will be successful in the future. The first is that open-source will live as the backbones of much more successful proprietary software, like WebKit for Chrome. This seems unsustainable for obvious reasons.
The second possible route is what I mentioned above: open-source filling niche requirements for a more limited, but more committed, user base. This is what things like MuseScore and Blender and i3-gaps work towards. The average laptop user will never interact with any of these projects. However, if you’re a user of technology yet still not a computer science major, there’s still a decent chance you’d use one of these projects, like if you’re a musician who doesn’t want to pay for proprietary music software, as an example. As the world of technology becomes more disparate, fragmented, and niche (in some ways, not all), the opportunity for open-source software to fill in those gaps becomes more realistic.
So, no, there will likely not be a success like Linux in the future. But that’s okay, because the technology world is larger than it ever was, and a disruptor would have to do much more than Linux already did.